Broadband Developments

Yeah, Everyone does these.  Top 10 – etc.

I thought about it.  Techmeme did a nice job of the biggest stories.  Thanks end the end-of-year read.   So, I’ll analyze it.

1. The Yahoo-Microsoft Story – Yeah this had to be the story of the year.  Microsoft overbids it turns out for Yahoo.  Yahoo plays hard-to-get.  Yahoo cozies up to Google.  That doesn’t turn out so well.  Yahoo is worth a fraction of what Microsoft bid for it.  This one is not over by a long shot.
2. Apple Announces last year at MacWorld – The fanboys will be onboard anyway and this was their event.  (FYI – I carry an iPhone)  Apple has plenty of press nowadays, this is not much of a big deal.
3. Google Chrome – So far it has been ho-hum.  There was a big splash, some people tried it, but this is not a world changer as it turns out.  (FYI- it’s my second browser and I love it)
4. Apple Developer Connection – The App Store is the single greatest thing about the iPhone.
5. Google Spoken iPhone App – Cool and wow.  I like the sound of that and it sums up that app nicely.  It really does work well.  Now is this a story of the year?  Um.  It could lead to lots of exciting things, but to me, not really a story of the year.
6. Google/Valve buy – an interesting rumor that didn’t come true.  Google with all that money, all that cash and everyone talking about what to buy.  Kinda funny isn’t it?
7. RIAA Music lawsuits – Dropping the lawsuits against Grandma Jones, it means little as I expect the RIAA to increase the pressure on the internet providers.
8. Google>Microsoft> Digg – Once again see Comment for #6
9. Windows 7 – Reports are saying its a glossy version of Vista.  I think the timing of this OS may be unfortunate for Microsoft – with the economy stumbling and tech/personal spending in a crunch.  If Windows 7 is not a game changer, then this baby may thud.
10. iPhone 3G – This was a story that deserved to be way higher on the list.  Apple finally put it all together and delivered again a “game changer”.

Wasn’t there an Olympics or something?  What about LinkedIn?  I’ve been on that for maybe 2/3 years now, but it seems to really have blown up now.  Facebook anyone?  Twitter?  Not really news, but their influence and presence has grown..

Google announced on the Google blog this morning that they’re dropping the deal with Yahoo. Instead of standing up to government antitrust scrutiny, they’ve chosen to simply walk away. Personally I think they’ll wait for a “friendlier” government and try again next year; after all they’ve been calling Obama “the Google president” internally for months. However, let’s pretend for a second that doesn’t happen. Google has really left yahoo at the altar for good…

Where does this really leave yahoo? Yahoo must have been counting on this $800 million in revenue to help it float while three feet of sunshine himself, jerry yang, tries to rebuild the failed empire. yahoo may have no choice in the end but to either be acquired at a fraction of what Microsoft offered earlier this year or go the way of pets.com; just another internet company turned bad joke at Bucks. After botching the MSFT deal, yang lost a lot credibility but it was mostly recovered by the Google deal. With that falling apart this morning what does he have to stand on as a leader? For all the smoke and mirrors yahoo is worth significantly less on all levels than before jerry’s grand plan in the post-Semel years.

jerry yang, meet Jonathan Abrams… I think you’ll have a lot in common soon.

UPDATE: Bloomberg just launched this story “Yahoo May Embrace Microsoft Without Google’s Help” making some of the same points I did above. Looks like I’m not the only one thinking this way…

Thanks to Mike Arrington at Techcrunch I  found this gem of an email. Arrington sees it as a software message.  I see it a bit different. Is it me or is Microsoft absolutely is moving it’s army.  We are seeing a massive movement of all their troops since the failed Yahoo takeover.  Great earnings and activity in every sector.  They could fire multiple warheads at little or no warning on any market - take your pick.

It’s clear to me that Microsoft is rolling again.  Balmer and team are focused.  As a blogger I still get no response from anyone from Microsoft for outreach or coverage.

Anyway enough ranting here is Balmer’s memo to the troops.

—–Original Message—–
From: Steve Ballmer [mailto:sballmer@microsoft.com]
Sent: Tuesday, October 28, 2008 2:37 PM
To:
Subject: A Platform for the Next Technology Revolution

During the past decade, a dramatic transformation in the world of information technology has been taking shape. It’s a transformation that will change the way we experience the world and share our experiences with others. It’s a transformation in which the barriers between technologies will fall away so we can connect to people and information no matter where we are. It’s a transformation where new innovations will shorten the path from inspiration to accomplishment.

Many of the components of this transformation are already in place. Some have received a great deal of attention. “Cloud computing” that connects people to vast amounts of storage and computing power in massive datacenters is one example. Social networking sites that have changed the way people connect with family and friends is another.

Other components are so much a part of the inevitable march of progress that we take them for granted as soon as we start to use them: cell phones that double as digital cameras, large flat-screen PC monitors and HD TV screens, and hands-free digital car entertainment and navigation systems, to name just a few.

What’s missing is the ability to connect these components in a seamless continuum of information, communication, and computing that isn’t bounded by device or location. Today, some things that our intuition says should be simple still remain difficult, if not impossible. Why can’t we easily access the documents we create at work on our home PCs? Why isn’t all of the information that customers share with us available instantly in a single application? Why can’t we create calendars that automatically merge our schedules at work and home?

This week at the Professional Developers Conference (PDC) in Los Angeles, we shared news with software developers about a new set of platform technologies that will help transcend these limits. Because you are a subscriber to Executive Emails from Microsoft, I wanted to share my thoughts about the impact that these technologies will have as developers begin to use them to create a new generation of experiences that extend uninterrupted from the desktop to the mobile phone, media player, car, and beyond-to places where we never thought information and communications would be available to us.

A NEW PLATFORM FOR CLOUD COMPUTING

At PDC, we announced the availability of an early preview release of a new technology called Windows Azure. Windows Azure will enable developers to build applications that extend from the cloud to the enterprise datacenter and span the PC, the Web, and the mobile phone. For the first time, we shared pre-beta code for Windows 7 and for Windows Server 2008 R2. Windows 7, which is the next version of the Windows desktop operating system, will take advantage of software and hardware advances to help eliminate the boundaries between information, people, and devices.

We also previewed Office Web applications, which are light-weight versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and OneNote that are designed to be accessed through a browser. Office Web applications will be part of the next version of Office and will enable people to view, edit, and share information and collaborate on documents on the desktop, the phone, and in a Web browser in a way that is consistent and familiar.

Windows Azure is part of the Azure Services Platform, a comprehensive set of storage, computing, and networking infrastructure services that reside in Microsoft’s network of datacenters. Using the Azure Services Platform, developers will be able to build applications that run in the cloud and extend existing applications to take advantage of cloud-based capabilities. The Azure Services Platform provides the foundation for business and consumer applications that deliver a consistent way for people to store and share information easily and securely in the cloud, and access it on any device from any location.

Windows Azure is not software that companies will run on their own servers. It’s something new: a service that runs in Microsoft’s growing network of datacenters and provides the platform that helps companies respond to the realities of today’s business environment, and tomorrow’s. Windows Azure technologies are already finding their way into products such as Windows Server 2008 and System Center Virtual Machine Manager, enabling organizations and Microsoft partners to create their own cloud infrastructure.

Windows Azure will enable organizations to respond to realities such as the need to use the Web to provide customers with comprehensive information and to interact with an audience that has the potential to expand exponentially overnight; to integrate operations with partners-and sometimes even competitors-to meet customer needs; to add new capabilities quickly to respond to new opportunities; and to enable employees to work efficiently and effectively no matter where they are. These realities apply not just to businesses, but to organizations of all kinds: schools, governments, community groups, and more.

Traditional approaches to building technology infrastructure and delivering computing capabilities make it difficult and expensive to adjust to these realities. You need systems with enough capacity to meet the highest possible demand-capacity that includes servers and buildings to house them, the power to run them, and the people to manage them. You have to spread that capacity across locations so there’s a backup if one part fails. You have to solve issues like access for different types of users and compliance with tax regulations in all countries where your customers reside.

Designed specifically to meet the global scale that today’s organizations require, the Azure Services Platform will provide fundamentally new ways to deploy services and capabilities. It gives businesses the option to take advantage of the capacity available in the cloud as it is needed, reducing the need to make large upfront investments in infrastructure simply to be ready when demand spikes. It will enable developers to create applications that run in the cloud and provide the features, information, and interactivity that employees, partners, and customers expect-no matter how many of them there are, where they are in the world, or what device they have at hand.

SOFTWARE PLUS SERVICES AND THE POWER OF CHOICE

The Azure Services Platform reflects our belief that choice is critical for developers, companies, and consumers. It is also based on our belief that the key to delivering value today and in the future lies in combining the best aspects of software running on PCs, servers, and devices with the best aspects of services running on the Web-an approach we call “software plus services.”

Our software plus services approach lets people take full advantage of the incredible power of today’s devices. While there are undeniable benefits to being able to tap into the wealth of information and services that can be accessed over the Web through a browser, the interactive experiences that people expect on their PC, mobile phone, and media player depend on sophisticated software running on powerful processors.

The richness of these experiences will only increase as multicore processors expand the computing capabilities of our devices and new programming languages open the door to a new generation of applications that let us use more natural ways to interact with digital technology such as voice, touch, and gestures.

Software plus services also recognizes that for most companies, the ideal way to build IT infrastructure is to find the right balance of applications that are run and managed within the organization and applications that are run and managed in the cloud.

This balance varies by company. A financial services company may choose to maintain customer records within its own datacenter to provide the extra layers of protection that it feels are needed to safeguard the privacy of personal information. It may outsource IT systems that provide basic capabilities such as email.

This balance will change over time within an organization, as well. A company may run its own online transaction system most of the year, but outsource for added capacity to meet extra demand during the holiday season. With software plus services, an organization can move applications back and forth between its own servers and the cloud quickly and smoothly.

Today, companies around the world are implementing Microsoft technologies to take advantage of the best combination of on-premise software and cloud-based services. Using Microsoft Online Services, businesses including Coca-Cola Enterprises, Blockbuster, and Energizer access and manage Microsoft Exchange, SharePoint, Office Communications Server, and Live Meeting over the Web through a single, secure infrastructure. In addition, 1 million people rely on Office Live Workspace for sharing and collaborating with friends, family, and colleagues.

EXPANDING THE DEFINITION OF PERSONAL COMPUTING

Ultimately, the reason to create a cloud services platform is to continue to enhance the value that computing delivers, whether it’s by improving productivity, making it easier to communicate with colleagues, or simplifying the way we access information and respond to changing business conditions.

In the world of software plus services and cloud computing, this means extending the definition of personal computing beyond the PC to include the Web and an ever-growing array of devices. Our goal is to make the combination of PCs, mobile devices, and the Web something that is significantly than more the sum of its parts.

The starting point is to recognize the unique value of each part. The value of the PC lies in its computing power, its storage capacity, and its ability to help us be more productive and create and consume rich and complex documents and content.

For the Web, it’s the ability to bring together people, information, and services so we can connect, communicate, share, and transact with anyone, anywhere, at any time.

With the mobile phone and other devices, it’s the ability to take action spontaneously-to make a call, take a picture, or send a text message in the flow of our activities.

Through Live Mesh-a service from Microsoft that we announced earlier this year and about which we shared new information week-we’re beginning to bridge the PC, phone, and Web and create this next generation of connected experiences. Built on the Azure Services Platform, Live Mesh enables you to use programs and information stored on your work computer from your home PC, and vice versa. With Live Mesh, you can share folders and ensure that the information is automatically synchronized across your devices.

Live Mesh hints at how our lives will be transformed as the barriers between devices disappear and the option to connect instantly to people, devices, programs, and information becomes a reality.

We’re not quite there yet. Today, the Azure Services Platform is available only as a limited technology preview release. But as developers begin to combine the capabilities of this new platform with the amazing ongoing hardware and software innovations that we are seeing from companies across the industry, it will bring us significantly closer to the time when information, communication, and computing flows along with us seamlessly as we move through our day-to-day activities.

You can learn more about these technologies and the progress we are making by visiting the Microsoft Software + Services Web site at http://www.microsoft.com/softwareplusservices/.

I look forward to sharing more information with you about these new technologies in the near future.

Steve Ballmer

Intel and Yahoo announced a partnership (also with Comcast) that they will be providing the embedded technology for set top boxes to provide widget for a TV environment. I’m here at IDF and had a chance to talk to a few Intel super geeks and basically it’s all vapor at the moment. It’s mainly a developer oriented showcase so it’s not meant to be a shipping product. The demo they are showing is very sexy but it’s vapor - at least for now.

The demo really shows the benefit of the user experience. The notion of having prefabricated widgets coming from Yahoo will make for a compelling experience. What’s more interesting is the idea that users or families will be able to create their own widgets. I can see this really working well for parents putting together microcontent widgets for their kids - a kinda set top box playlist concept.

So as of today it’s concept and this offering should attract developers with the open architecture. The Intel guy said that developers can integrate any clients side innovation directly into the stack. This makes sense for emerging areas that need innovation - like video acceleration and other problem areas like managing the storage issues. Today big video content providers have to to store multiple file formats like Flash, Windows, and Silverlight. This is a big problem and generates a ton of costs. At least the CDNs can make more money.

I love this concept with the Intel set top box and think that this is where Yahoo needs to be successful. By pushing out content from their system to the edge the users are happy. Yahoo goes to where the users are instead of today where Yahoo makes the users come to them.

The question in my mind is what is the video user experience like when there are so many problems in delivering video over the Internet (speed, cost, concurrency).

Last week Facebook and Intel released a joint announcement where Intel will provide “thousands” of high performance yet energy efficient servers. From the press release:

Facebook and Intel have signed a collaboration agreement that focuses on technology evaluation, benchmarking and optimization of software for Intel architecture. Intel will work to address Facebook’s processing needs through assessment of various chipset and server platform configurations, delivery of the most energy efficient processors and allocation of software engineering to evaluate ways to harness the optimal performance from Facebook’s servers.

When I heard this I knew it sounded oddly familar, almost recycled. Last year Intel started making custom hardware for Google (again). I always thought this was a special deal for god… I mean Google. (note the capitalization, yes Google has overtaken god in day-to-day importance), however apparently Intel has a dedicated white box division for custom projects. Anyone with deep pockets can order up a custom solution and commission any R&D around it. The Register sheds a little light on the operation:

The chip maker crafts a few different types of systems and will ship them to interested parties… On the Google front, Intel went out of its way to steal such business. It produced a bespoke server line full of low-power, low-cost components that matched Google’s demanding specifications.

According to a CNet blog cited in the same article, “Intel’s server gurus ‘have been maniacal as we designed a unique board for them, developing a unique memory module with them, working every angle of the cost equation”. Although Facebook is a valley and Web 2.0 up and come’r, it’s still no Google. I wonder if Intel would work as hard to slum it for the likes of Facebook? Or possibly Sheryl Sandberg pulled some tricks from her Google history to make the deal happen? Either way, my sources inside Facebook and Intel are on the technical side and say this is nowhere close to the significance or workload of the Google deal. Basically, Facebook will be getting a similiar platform to what Google’s been gobbling with a few minor tweaks. Rather anticlimatic, but it makes sense. Facebook doesn’t have the liquid capital to start a greenfield R&D exercise with Intel but both Intel and Facebook could use a PR injection amidst all the recession talk. This deal completely makes sense. Intel leverages the previous R&D investment and Facebook gets a high performance/low power server Google paid to develop.

Intel, HP and Yahoo are joining forces for a joint research initiative according to PCWorld and TechCrunch. I thought only Google felt entitled to making announcements on forthcoming announcements. What could it be? HP and Intel makes a bit of sense given they ae hardware partners but how does Yahoo, exclusively a hardware company, fit? They promised an answer by 8am this morning. Here it is 9am and I haven’t seen anything so it’s speculation time. Here are some ideas tossed around to me and some friends:

1. A mobile device focusing on Yahoo’s mobile services - We all agree mobile is a huge evolving market but unless Yahoo comes up with a game changing killer app this is a bad idea. Even the agile giant google can’t seem to get their phone out on time. That brings up the other issue, how would it differentiate itself from smart phones and what would it use for transport?
2. Yahoo bloatware installed on all HP PCs - Okay, just like AOL back in the day but where does Intel fit in? …and this isn’t exactly a research initiative.
3. Cloud computer - Really a cloud computer is just a small step up from a dumb terminal. I’m not sure Yahoo has the resources and applications to compete with MSFT, google and all of web 2.0 in the cloud but it does make the most sense given the who’s who involved.

Update: Looks like #3 was at least partially right. Intel, HP and Yahoo have partnered to launch a cloud computing “test bed”. I’m not sure on the test bed part… Aren’t there plenty of companies doing cloud computing pretty darned well? The most interesting part is who’s not involved, meaning Google and Microsoft. They are clearly leaders in this space. Intel has very close business ties to Microsoft and HP some business and non-business ties to Google.

Cofounder of Yahoo Jerry Yang can now get down to business. The Carl Icahn takeover saga is finally over. Icahn joins Yahoo’s board. I guess Carl has a lot of shares but his ‘lame duck’ board seat is a consolation prize for technologies version of “The Price is Right”. He lost. Last week we saw a final knock out blow to Icahn had him down for the count. Now we have peace.

“While I continue to believe that the sale of the whole company or the sale of its search business in the right transaction must be given full consideration, I share the view that Yahoo’s valuable collection of assets positions it well to continue expanding its online leadership and enhancing returns to stockholders,” Mr. Icahn said in the statement. “I believe this is a good outcome and that we will have a strong working relationship going forward.”

Finally Yahoo can get down to business and get the legal bull from Wall Street off their back. Expect a fast resolution to a Microsoft deal or other transaction (hmm AOL..). Yahoo has to move on now and get back to competing.

The market is in the toilet and Yahoo’s cofounder Jerry Yang is in charge again. Lets hope cofounder Jerry has some magic left.

Also known as the “sit down and shut up” plan Yahoo’s given Carl Icahn a seat and two others to be chosen from his palate of proposed members in exchange for dropping his proxy battle and agreement to vote his shares with the board during the Aug. 1 shareholders meeting.

Put a fork in MSFT’s plans to buy any part of Yahoo. jerry yang and Roy Bostock have won by simply putting Icahn and friends in a corner to be ignored for at least the next year. Icahn must have truly felt the proxy bid was a lost cause to accept such a token gesture from Yahoo. Yahoo expanded its board by 2 seats to accommodate his buddies and will replace Robert Kotick with Carl Icahn. This is a huge departure from Icahn’s claim he had over 30% of outstanding shares in the bag for electing his board. What happened?

Legg Mason’s move to back Yahoo’s board combined with Yahoo’s continually falling stock price may have spooked Icahn in this, in my opinion, premature acquiesence.

Yahoo shares jumped nearly 6 percent based on news that Microsoft may be looking for partners and make another bid on Yahoo’s search business. One of the interesting details emerged that Yahoo was willing to sell itself all in one piece. Time Warner and News Corp are mentioned in the reported arrangement. Yes, that is the same News Corp that Yahoo looked to as a white knight suitor when the initial takeover fell apart. Any arrangement with Time Warner or News Corp will likely break out the content portal portion of Yahoo, while Microsoft retains the search portion. Details on the background to previous attempts at a deal are in the Wall Street Journal story.

If Ballmer comes back to the table, expect that whatever he comes up with will go through. Microsoft in Ballmer’s control won’t be made to look stupid or lack the will to do this twice. Microsoft will execute a deal that suits them absolutely whether it involves a complete takeover or breaking out the search business.

Additionally news of a Justice Department review of the Google-Yahoo deal will certainly add some pressures for Yahoo’s side. The civil investigation will look at whether the deal restricts competition in the market.

For Microsoft, this deal would translate into an additional respectable presence online in addition to their desktop and office dominance. In the big picture, creating this traffic portal plays a big part in Microsoft’s cloud computing ambitions. Forget all the side stories and stock value ramifications, focus on the Google component to get an idea of where this is all really going..

Kara Swisher, AllThingsD.com, reported last night that Yahoo would announce the big reorg. Well she was correct. Yahoo announced the ReOrg today. Not much to say other than what is already being reported.

Here is the detail as of today (thanks Kara Swisher) .. the structure will pivot on several key execs, reporting to President Sue Decker.

EVP of Yahoo’s Platforms and Infrastructure division Ash Patel as head of a new Audience Products group (its name was changed from Global Products); Global Partner Solutions EVP Hilary Schneider as the head of a new U.S unit; various folks running around the rest of the globe.

There will also be another strategy team group with a new head, who has not yet been chosen.

And Yahoo will name Scott Dietzen (pictured, right) to take over the job of SVP Brad Garlinghouse, running all communications and community properties and products under Patel.

What All This Means?
To me the big area that is critical for Yahoo is corporate *and* competitive strategy. These variables are not mutually exclusive. Yahoo has some big weapons but under their current condition they have limited energy, time, and people resource (know-how) to execute. Therefore, it’s a chess game not a frontal brute force battle. Yahoo has to be smart and execute with precision. Every move needs to be calculated in context to their corporate and competitive plan. Yahoo has been winging it for years - relying on their massive pageviews and audience subscribers.

Yahoo needs to be “all in” and compete. I am in the camp of pro-Yahoo (always have been). I’m cheering for them to pour it on AND compete.