Broadband Developments

From Reuters….Apple Inc said on Tuesday it was dropping copy protection from songs sold on the Internet and debuted its slimmest 17-inch laptop yet, but with no dramatic products or master pitchman Steve Jobs, the company’s final Macworld performance disappointed Wall Street.

Apple shares slid 0.7 percent, lagging by far the Nasdaq’s 1.7 percent gain, reflecting frustration over the lack of news from the trade conference that had previously introduced the iPhone to the world.

“There were some innovative products, but no true blockbusters,” said Robert Francello, head of equity trading for Apex Capital hedge fund in San Francisco. “People were bullish going into it, and now they’re kind of taking money off the table.”

Apple said its iTunes music store, which has sold 6 billion songs thus far, will offer its 10-million-song library free of digital rights management — or copy-protection — by the end of the quarter, for between 69 cents and $1.29 a song.

Songs will also be available straight to iPhones over the air, instead of through a computer.

The company decided not use Macworld to launch any major new product, as it had in past years, when it introduced such industry-changing devices as the iPhone.

In years past, the company’s Macworld product launches had produced so much buzz that they managed to overshadow events at the far larger Consumer Electronics Show. The 2009 CES show kicks off this week in Las Vegas.

Tuesday’s event produced few surprises. Apple announced a $2,799 17-inch laptop that is the company’s lightest and slimmest ever, as well as tweaks to software for home movies and photographs.

The event culminated with singer Tony Bennett crooning “The Best is Yet to Come” and “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” in a farewell of sorts to Apple, which will no longer attend the cultural event thronged annually by Mac-faithful.

Jobs, a fixture at past events, was nowhere in sight, despite some hopes for a cameo. Last month, the company said its chief executive and salesman extraordinaire would not deliver the Macworld address. That raised fresh concerns about the cancer survivor’s health and signaled to many Apple-watchers that the company had no plans to launch a major product at Macworld.

Efraim Schwartz over at ComputerWorld reported back in July the results of various studies that indicate that IT jobs will drop in 2009.  Contractors, projects, overall spending down.  The news is dire: “Almost no investment in cloud computing”.

Well, I don’t have any studies to refer to just gut predictions.
Like that old sly cop with the corduroy jacket on your favorite TV show, I got some hunches.

Shining up my crystal ball:

YES…….
Economy is kinda clouding things up, but yes, a few things seem clear..

1. Yahoo – Microsoft will scoop them up
2. Windows 7 – Unfortunately for Microsoft, this will probably dud, too many factors against it.
3. Ipod Touch Tablet – An internet-capable touch screen tablet –March or June
4. Chrome 2 – will run on cell platform and desktop, instant browser sync
5. Digg – Google property
6. Giants win the Super Bowl – not a tech prediction-that just popped in there.

Again, 1-5 are based on nothing but hunches here people.  #6 is something else entirely.  (We make no claims to the validity of any of these predictions, however)

Side note – Gizmodo posted this rumor about Steve Jobs on their website.  Nothing that wasn’t said before, but there are alleged reliable sources here.  Jobs is the Walt Disney of Computing™, let’s hope this rumor is not true.  Long live Jobs and I will take one of those Touch Tablets please…

Have a good 2009..

Yeah, Everyone does these.  Top 10 – etc.

I thought about it.  Techmeme did a nice job of the biggest stories.  Thanks end the end-of-year read.   So, I’ll analyze it.

1. The Yahoo-Microsoft Story – Yeah this had to be the story of the year.  Microsoft overbids it turns out for Yahoo.  Yahoo plays hard-to-get.  Yahoo cozies up to Google.  That doesn’t turn out so well.  Yahoo is worth a fraction of what Microsoft bid for it.  This one is not over by a long shot.
2. Apple Announces last year at MacWorld – The fanboys will be onboard anyway and this was their event.  (FYI – I carry an iPhone)  Apple has plenty of press nowadays, this is not much of a big deal.
3. Google Chrome – So far it has been ho-hum.  There was a big splash, some people tried it, but this is not a world changer as it turns out.  (FYI- it’s my second browser and I love it)
4. Apple Developer Connection – The App Store is the single greatest thing about the iPhone.
5. Google Spoken iPhone App – Cool and wow.  I like the sound of that and it sums up that app nicely.  It really does work well.  Now is this a story of the year?  Um.  It could lead to lots of exciting things, but to me, not really a story of the year.
6. Google/Valve buy – an interesting rumor that didn’t come true.  Google with all that money, all that cash and everyone talking about what to buy.  Kinda funny isn’t it?
7. RIAA Music lawsuits – Dropping the lawsuits against Grandma Jones, it means little as I expect the RIAA to increase the pressure on the internet providers.
8. Google>Microsoft> Digg – Once again see Comment for #6
9. Windows 7 – Reports are saying its a glossy version of Vista.  I think the timing of this OS may be unfortunate for Microsoft – with the economy stumbling and tech/personal spending in a crunch.  If Windows 7 is not a game changer, then this baby may thud.
10. iPhone 3G – This was a story that deserved to be way higher on the list.  Apple finally put it all together and delivered again a “game changer”.

Wasn’t there an Olympics or something?  What about LinkedIn?  I’ve been on that for maybe 2/3 years now, but it seems to really have blown up now.  Facebook anyone?  Twitter?  Not really news, but their influence and presence has grown..

Today Alex Pham of LA Times wrote a story about the iphone and games.  She quoted me talking about my son (my boy) Alec.

She writes … Within days of buying his iPhone, John Furrier discovered that his 13-year-old son, Alec, was sneaking off with the device and downloading games. To reclaim his phone, Furrier had to buy his son an iPod Touch, which Alec quickly filled up with Pac-Man, Magic 8 Ball and dozens of other games.

“When he’s not playing on his Xbox 360, he’s playing on the iPod,” said Furrier, a 43-year-old entrepreneur and blogger in Palo Alto.

What I want to expand on is the new user trend for Digital Natives - they hate talking on the phone.  They are a generation of asynchonous users.  Screw talking just SMS or wait for the next incoming message or signal.  I polled 10 kids in middle school - 8 out of 10 admit they don’t use their phone - only to call their parents.

80% !! Granted this is Palo Alto, CA - but it is a leading indicator that the new definition of portable isn’t phone.

Oopps sorry all you Unified Communications nutjobs out there. It’s data not voice.  I’ll just leave it like that.  The iPhone phenom will continue to disrupt and now Android will accelerate it.

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2008 fourth quarter ended September 27, 2008. The Company posted revenue of $7.9 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.14 billion, or $1.26 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $6.22 billion and net quarterly profit of $904 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 34.7 percent, up from 33.6 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 41 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple shipped 2,611,000 Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing 21 percent unit growth and 17 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,052,000 iPods during the quarter, representing eight percent unit growth and three percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone units sold were 6,892,000 compared to 1,119,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

“Apple just reported one of the best quarters in its history, with a spectacular performance by the iPhone—we sold more phones than RIM,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We don’t yet know how this economic downturn will affect Apple. But we’re armed with the strongest product line in our history, the most talented employees and the best customers in our industry. And $25 billion of cash safely in the bank with zero debt.”

“We’re very pleased to have grown revenue 35 percent and to have generated $9.1 billion in cash in fiscal 2008,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead, visibility is low and forecasting is challenging, and as a result we are going to be prudent in predicting the December quarter. We are providing a wide range for our guidance, targeting revenue of $9.0 to $10.0 billion and earnings per diluted share between $1.06 and $1.35.”

Big news over the weekend was the Apple iPhone 3G.  I took the weekend off to get away from the hype but apparently it was a big weekend.  First the rush was on to get the iPhone then the big crash by the fload of activations.

Apple is posting a sales number of 1 million iPhones sold.

Apple executives were pleased with the early results. “IPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend,” Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said in a statement. “It took 74 days to sell the first 1 million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world.”

Still, iPhone sales pale compared with those of established mobile phone makers, such as Nokia , which sells almost 10 million phones each week, or Samsung Electronics Co Ltd  and LG Electronics Inc , which each ship more than 100 million phones a year.

While those phone makers often unveil dozens of models in year, Apple has only one, and its sales spark a retail frenzy as consumers around the world line up to grab one.

The iPhone 3G still has the popular touch screen, but also offers a faster wireless network and the ability to download third-party applications like games.

Perhaps more important, the new iPhone sells for about $200 in the U.S., about one-half the price of its predecessor.

“We don’t yet know the breakdown of how many phones were sold to new customers and how many existing iPhone customers upgraded, but regardless, sales during the first weekend were very impressive,” said Jeff Kagan, an independent telecommunications analyst, in a note.

Analysts said iPhone sales may dent sales and profit margins at Samsung and LG this year.

Activation problems marred its U.S. launch on Friday, with many buyers leaving stores frustrated that they could not use the hotly anticipated gadget after waiting in line for hours.

Like most in the technology industry I work well over 40 hours per week. Also like most, rarely am I compensated for all the ad hoc work done off hours. We just accept it as a matter of course based on the industry we’re in. However, some legal eagles are saying employees may be entitled to overtime pay for using their iPhone, blackberry or Windows Mobile device for business use after hours.

I respond to email on my mobile device after hours every night, and every weekend, on christmas, while on vacation…. well, you get the idea. And, I’m not alone. Experts quoted in this CNBC article are saying companies need to implement policies around after hours usage. My guess is even if they do those policies will be ignored by middle management downward and the same 24×7 accessibility expectation will silently remain. Howard Levin says “Another option is for employers to ask non-exempt workers to leave the device at the office at the end of their work day”. I’m sorry Howard, have you ever worked outside the law microsphere? Most mobile devices are increasingly people’s phones which they expect to have available 24×7. Right or wrong, cutting off people from their mobile devices at 5pm would cause a huge downturn in productivity. It’s just not realistic. As people become more hyperconnected they never really step away from the office. The virtual office paradigm extends to the home, your kids baseball game, even the beach in Hawaii.

That’s why my last vacation made it virtually impossible to stay connected by design. I took a 4 day motorcycle trip up the California coast and only stopped in places with a minimal expectation of cell signal. However, that’s a very rare pleasure for me and I’d guess for most of you readers.

April Boyer says “Plaintiff lawyers have started making rumblings that it’s a potential claim.” How will employers handle this scenario? Workers who keep a log of their after-hours activities could be entitled to significant compensation when all this shakes out. One take is that by giving employees blackberries they’re essentially getting hundreds of free man hours of work per employee per year. The cost savings there is mind-blowing. What if they all had to pay up all of a sudden? As an employee I love the personal upside but taking a higher level view this could have wide reaching negative ripples economically. Additional costs or the alternative of lost/lowered productivity puts businesses in a no-win situation.

What’s your take on the issue?